Rob Lamb

speaker

6,505 appearances 29 recordings 4 series first heard Sep 2026 last heard yesterday

Rob Lamb’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 29 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 29.

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Stuff To Blow Your Mind · From the Vault: The Devil You Know, Part 1 · 24 Sep 2026 podcast

trees randomly with a club, you know, and say, who knows what Tharg is going to do? voice-verified

Uh why would you mess with Throg on this? voice-verified

Yeah. voice-verified

So again, the Ellsberg paradox highlights a core flaw in human decision making, the aversion to ambiguity. voice-verified

The madman theory as a political strategy seeks to exploit this by cultivating a reputation of irrationality, creating an ambiguous threat. voice-verified

The adversary, in their aversion to this ambiguity and the unknown risk of an unpredictable response, may be coerced into backing down, or at least this is the idea. voice-verified

This is the the logic behind the approach. voice-verified

Yeah. voice-verified

of a good cop, bad cop thing too, I imagine. voice-verified

Right, right. voice-verified

And and uh not to derail the point here, but I wanna bring it back to Ellsberg's other criticisms of nuclear weapons and the rhetoric surrounding nuclear weapons, that being there's all the there's all these other uncertainty factors and ambiguous data that would be coming in about what the enemy is or is not doing. voice-verified

And therefore, uh any given situation like this is gonna be just wrought with um with potential ambiguity, potential misstep. voice-verified

and potential mistakes. voice-verified

So like if it were only as easy as we're laying it out here, it would almost be a different situation. voice-verified

Right, right. voice-verified

And yeah, this is this is all valid. voice-verified

Um I was looking at a couple of papers on madman theory, and madman theory like um ambiguity aversion itself is something that has been written about a lot. voice-verified

There there are no shortage of papers out there. voice-verified

But uh I looked at just a couple. voice-verified

Um I looked at one titled Crazy Like a Fox, Are Leaders with Reputations for Madness More Successful at International Coercion by Roseanne W. voice-verified

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