Rory Sutherland

And to be honest, the trial possibly costs less than we would have spent just arguing about it if we were adopting a kind of purist approach. And I think it is important because Why I think this is becoming vitally important is most business is probabilistic, but everybody in business wants to prove and pretend that it's deterministic.

So every spreadsheet is in some ways an act of pretense because it's past information, which you pretend has wonderful predictive value as if it's kind of Laplace's demon, but it really doesn't. Okay, because weird shit happens out of nowhere all the time. And you have this fundamental problem, I think, where I think what distinguishes someone like Jeff is their probabilistic thinkers.

So every spreadsheet is in some ways an act of pretense because it's past information, which you pretend has wonderful predictive value as if it's kind of Laplace's demon, but it really doesn't. Okay, because weird shit happens out of nowhere all the time. And you have this fundamental problem, I think, where I think what distinguishes someone like Jeff is their probabilistic thinkers.

So every spreadsheet is in some ways an act of pretense because it's past information, which you pretend has wonderful predictive value as if it's kind of Laplace's demon, but it really doesn't. Okay, because weird shit happens out of nowhere all the time. And you have this fundamental problem, I think, where I think what distinguishes someone like Jeff is their probabilistic thinkers.

They just go, well, look, it probably won't work, but if it does, it will be spectacular. And they are in a position where they can take those decisions. In their defense, most people, I think, first of all, most people are promoted within business for their aptitude in solving reductionist deterministic problems. How do you optimize this

They just go, well, look, it probably won't work, but if it does, it will be spectacular. And they are in a position where they can take those decisions. In their defense, most people, I think, first of all, most people are promoted within business for their aptitude in solving reductionist deterministic problems. How do you optimize this

They just go, well, look, it probably won't work, but if it does, it will be spectacular. And they are in a position where they can take those decisions. In their defense, most people, I think, first of all, most people are promoted within business for their aptitude in solving reductionist deterministic problems. How do you optimize this

Yeah, absolutely right. Yeah. And actually, by the way, they probably, in most cases in business, you capture remarkably few of the gains from a bold decision, whereas you capture 100% of the blame if it goes wrong. Correct. Yeah. So certain decisions, decisions which are what you might call low chance of success, huge return.

Yeah, absolutely right. Yeah. And actually, by the way, they probably, in most cases in business, you capture remarkably few of the gains from a bold decision, whereas you capture 100% of the blame if it goes wrong. Correct. Yeah. So certain decisions, decisions which are what you might call low chance of success, huge return.

Yeah, absolutely right. Yeah. And actually, by the way, they probably, in most cases in business, you capture remarkably few of the gains from a bold decision, whereas you capture 100% of the blame if it goes wrong. Correct. Yeah. So certain decisions, decisions which are what you might call low chance of success, huge return.

That's when people leave a business and become an entrepreneur because they realize that there's no point in actually doing those kind of things within a business because if things do well, you get a pat on the back and a bonus. If things go badly, you lose your job.

That's when people leave a business and become an entrepreneur because they realize that there's no point in actually doing those kind of things within a business because if things do well, you get a pat on the back and a bonus. If things go badly, you lose your job.

That's when people leave a business and become an entrepreneur because they realize that there's no point in actually doing those kind of things within a business because if things do well, you get a pat on the back and a bonus. If things go badly, you lose your job.

I'm in a small minority of people who would argue that before you criticize what someone does, you've got to understand what they're trying to do. And they have been completely forthright about the fact they expect to lose all but 15% of their customers. All but 15% of their customers. Exactly, of their customers, by moving to a much more upmarket, expensive car on an electric platform.

I'm in a small minority of people who would argue that before you criticize what someone does, you've got to understand what they're trying to do. And they have been completely forthright about the fact they expect to lose all but 15% of their customers. All but 15% of their customers. Exactly, of their customers, by moving to a much more upmarket, expensive car on an electric platform.

I'm in a small minority of people who would argue that before you criticize what someone does, you've got to understand what they're trying to do. And they have been completely forthright about the fact they expect to lose all but 15% of their customers. All but 15% of their customers. Exactly, of their customers, by moving to a much more upmarket, expensive car on an electric platform.

Normally, what they did is anathema to anybody who loves what you might call brand maintenance and brand management. But by the way, they didn't change their name. They didn't call the car Zog. They still call it Jaguar. They still, contrary to rumors, have kept the leaping cat motif, etc. But what they've done is...

Normally, what they did is anathema to anybody who loves what you might call brand maintenance and brand management. But by the way, they didn't change their name. They didn't call the car Zog. They still call it Jaguar. They still, contrary to rumors, have kept the leaping cat motif, etc. But what they've done is...

Normally, what they did is anathema to anybody who loves what you might call brand maintenance and brand management. But by the way, they didn't change their name. They didn't call the car Zog. They still call it Jaguar. They still, contrary to rumors, have kept the leaping cat motif, etc. But what they've done is...

a very, very bold kind of, okay, in a sense, it's, look, bet the farm here, okay? Either we do this, we either succeed, in which case, great, or if we fail, to be honest, we were heading for disaster anyway, because you've got to be slightly careful. This is where, you know, okay, when Dylan went electronic, okay, someone shouted Judas.