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Rory Sutherland

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2934 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

There's four or five million drivers in the US.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

This is one of the biggest markets out there.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And there's only two players in the space.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

To be honest, I could actually very compellingly argue it's cheap in two seconds.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Watch this.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Tesla trades at $1.2 trillion plus or minus.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It's got a $100 million flat car business with declining profitability.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Let's value that at 2x revenues.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

That's $200 billion.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

So that leaves you a trillion left, right?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Trillion from the $1.2 trillion valuation.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

There's only two assets that give you that, self-drive and Optimus.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

For lack of any information, split it 50-50.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

half self-drive, half afterwards.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Tesla's self-drive opportunity, which has zero commercial revenue, 20 cars driving around Austin, still having way more stops than humans, based on the latest data, is valued in the public markets at effectively $500 billion.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

You're getting an actual functioning program, albeit with a more expensive cost structure and maybe not the right long-term solution, for $100 billion.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It's cheap.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Yeah, it's 20% the price, based on that math.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Probably true, but I don't think these guys are rate limited on capital.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I think what they're underwriting is bigness.