Rory Sutherland
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
There's four or five million drivers in the US.
This is one of the biggest markets out there.
And there's only two players in the space.
To be honest, I could actually very compellingly argue it's cheap in two seconds.
Watch this.
Tesla trades at $1.2 trillion plus or minus.
It's got a $100 million flat car business with declining profitability.
Let's value that at 2x revenues.
That's $200 billion.
So that leaves you a trillion left, right?
Trillion from the $1.2 trillion valuation.
There's only two assets that give you that, self-drive and Optimus.
For lack of any information, split it 50-50.
half self-drive, half afterwards.
Tesla's self-drive opportunity, which has zero commercial revenue, 20 cars driving around Austin, still having way more stops than humans, based on the latest data, is valued in the public markets at effectively $500 billion.
You're getting an actual functioning program, albeit with a more expensive cost structure and maybe not the right long-term solution, for $100 billion.
It's cheap.
Yeah, it's 20% the price, based on that math.
Probably true, but I don't think these guys are rate limited on capital.
I think what they're underwriting is bigness.