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Rory Sutherland

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2934 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I mean, literally at some level, now I'm channeling my inner Jason.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

We underwrite bigness and we underwrite growth.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And this is bigly and growthly.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It's a big market and it's growing like a weed.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I mean, it's 350 million, but I think it's kind of like 5x year on year.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And I don't have the numbers I used to a while back, but explosive growth, right?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It's like parabolic growth quarter on quarter.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

So that's what they're underwriting.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I mean, as I say, you can pencil out a multi-hundred billion dollar market cap here.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Now, having exuded optimism, it is just worth pointing out there are a large number of practical issues for the Waymo business and even more so for the robot taxi business.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And circling back to where the data centers and space business, there's just a large number of things that the market is effectively discounting as practical.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Google will solve it, or Elon will solve it, or Moore's Law will solve it.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

There's just a lot of wood to chop here.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

When you see this kind of discounting of the future and the discounting of problems, there's a little part of you that says, are we at that point in the cycle where we are just getting way ahead of ourselves?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

What are the biggest problems that we're discounting, do you think, Roy?

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

First of all, the Waymo works, but the problem is cost structure at a high level.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Waymo works, and the problem is cost structure.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

The Tesla product doesn't quite work yet, but if it does, the cost structure will be lower.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Waymo has the physical costs of the more expensive cars.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It has, obviously, including the LiDAR cost, and then less visible.