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Rory Sutherland

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
2934 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And you're probably looking at 50 times run rate revenues.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I mean, that's a lot of Elon premium.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I mean, my mental model is on SpaceX and Tesla, about 80% of the value is the Elon premium and 20% of the value is the actual business has worked.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

That's just a heavy bet.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It's like doing a venture fund to someone you think is so good, you're giving them an 80% of carry promote.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And he's earned it, but oh my God, just gets harder and harder.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

I just hope he never gets sick.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

That's truly terrifying.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And there's the famous Peter Thiel story about driving with him to Sand Hill Road when Elon crashed.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And Peter's comment is, you literally don't have any concept of risk.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

We are one horrible car crash away from $2 trillion worth of value destruction.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

That's actually a very true comment, just logically based on the difference between the value of his assets with and without him.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

But if you also look, again, I'm a boring price person at times.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

If you look at the entry price with Tim Cook over, because I held stock on it, but it was trading at 11 or 12 tons cash flow.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

It was dirt cheap.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

Don't screw it up and you get a decent return.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

And as it happens, he grew the thing nicely.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

So you got a magnificent return.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

In this case, you're entering the thing at, if God forbid, that poor man should have a car accident and even decide to retire.

The Twenty Minute VC (20VC): Venture Capital | Startup Funding | The Pitch
20VC: SpaceX Completes Acquisition of xAI | The 2026 SaaS Massacre: Public Market Collapse | Microsoft's $360 Billion Market Cap Loss | NVIDIA's $100BN Investment Dispute with OpenAI | Waymo Raises $16 Billion at a $110 Billion Valuation

You're entering this thing at 50x revenues, where you basically have to be the most talented engineer in history just to simply keep the stock price flat.