Rory Sutherland
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And you're probably looking at 50 times run rate revenues.
I mean, that's a lot of Elon premium.
I mean, my mental model is on SpaceX and Tesla, about 80% of the value is the Elon premium and 20% of the value is the actual business has worked.
That's just a heavy bet.
It's like doing a venture fund to someone you think is so good, you're giving them an 80% of carry promote.
And he's earned it, but oh my God, just gets harder and harder.
I just hope he never gets sick.
That's truly terrifying.
And there's the famous Peter Thiel story about driving with him to Sand Hill Road when Elon crashed.
And Peter's comment is, you literally don't have any concept of risk.
We are one horrible car crash away from $2 trillion worth of value destruction.
That's actually a very true comment, just logically based on the difference between the value of his assets with and without him.
But if you also look, again, I'm a boring price person at times.
If you look at the entry price with Tim Cook over, because I held stock on it, but it was trading at 11 or 12 tons cash flow.
It was dirt cheap.
Don't screw it up and you get a decent return.
And as it happens, he grew the thing nicely.
So you got a magnificent return.
In this case, you're entering the thing at, if God forbid, that poor man should have a car accident and even decide to retire.
You're entering this thing at 50x revenues, where you basically have to be the most talented engineer in history just to simply keep the stock price flat.