Rory Sutherland

If you cannot claim the credit for that, except to the extent that it delivers value in the quarter in which you had the idea or the financial year in which you had the idea, you are underfunding your marketing efforts.

It's like saying to – imagine you went to J.K.

Rowling and said, yep, you can have the royalties on the Harry Potter books, but only on the first edition.

And consequently, long-term marketing ideas, when you're paid by the hour or when you're evaluated by the quarter, as marketers would be – now, you wouldn't go into a pharmaceutical research company and say, did you invent a blockbuster drug this week?

No, or you're all fired.

You accept the fact that you spend a load of money –

Effectively, okay, this is the brutal truth.

You don't find entrepreneurs in chess clubs.

You find entrepreneurs in casinos.

They're playing poker.

They're playing backgammon.

You know, they're playing games of chance with an occasional very high payoff.

And a lot of life is exactly like that.

But you don't know where the huge payoff is going to come in advance.

The people who are running these organizations for the benefit of financial predictability are trying to make it chess.

They're trying to turn it into a reductionist game where the most you can score is one for a win.

They're trying to put a ceiling on it.

They're trying effectively to pretend it's a low-variance mechanistic predictable process.

50% of your effort in life, once you've ensured the fact that you're not going to starve to death, die, etc., you know, you've looked after your children, should be attempts to get lucky.

In other words, Nassim would say, I love this phrase, increasing your surface area exposure to positive upside optionality.