Roukaya Ibrahim

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167 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 2 Aug

Roukaya Ibrahim’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ's Take On the Week · Why Oil Prices Could Hit a Breaking Point by Year End · 2 Aug 2026 podcast

And instead, what we've seen is that US exports have actually surged, but that's come on the back of a drawdown in US inventories, not a meaningful increase in production.

And what that means is that the surge in exports that helps cushion global oil markets is ultimately temporary.

And in fact, in recent weeks, we have seen U.S.

crude oil exports relapse to where they were prior to the crisis.

So that sort of support for global supply has faded for now.

But in terms of the longer term outlook, I mean, you mentioned OPEC.

And I think it was really interesting to see the UAE announce that it was exiting OPEC in the midst of this crisis.

It may have been accelerated by the crisis, but really the reason why it's exiting is because it has invested in its domestic capacity, production capacity, and the OPEC production quotas do not allow it to sort of match that increase in production capacity.

But I think what we're likely to see is, as you mentioned, sort of a coalition of countries that's not a formal sort of coalition in the same sense that OPEC is, but a group of countries that are geopolitically aligned with the U.S.

that are more willing to increase their production and are less sensitive to global prices than the U.S.

producers are.

Yeah.

And from my perspective, it will be a shift in demand that really ultimately accelerates trends that were in place prior to the crisis because, you know, you know, the electrification trend and reduced demand for fossil fuels, these trends were already in place.

But I think this sort of adds another layer of an incentive to accelerate this trend.

And I think that's probably going to be the, you know, the more dominant dynamic over the longer term.

Yeah, I think that's been the most interesting part of the past couple months is that we've seen the crack spread, that difference between the refined products and the crude prices has widened meaningfully.

And I think that there is several reasons for that.

You know, I think the Strait of Hormuz crisis plays a part, but there's also more going on.

So first of all, regarding the Strait of Hormuz, so as I mentioned earlier, you know, China has limited exports of fuel products worldwide.

which has helped the crude oil market cushion the supply disruption, capped prices in the crude oil market.

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