Roukaya Ibrahim

speaker

167 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Aug 2026 last heard 2 Aug

Roukaya Ibrahim’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 1.

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WSJ's Take On the Week · Why Oil Prices Could Hit a Breaking Point by Year End · 2 Aug 2026 podcast

But at the same time, it has actually created a bigger problem for refined products because these Asian countries that depend on Chinese refined product exports now no longer have these supplies.

So it's tightened the global market for refined products.

So that has, I think, contributed to the increase in the crack spread.

The other dynamic also is that, you know, when you look at what goes through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the crisis, 15 million barrels of crude and 5 million barrels of refined products.

has been faced with this sort of double whammy of not only is the crude that is used to produce the refined product is now limited, but also part of the supply of refined product has also been constrained.

And then outside of Hormuz, I think that what is happening to Russia, increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries is also playing a part.

Ukraine has really ramped up its

attacks on Russian refineries over the past couple months.

And as a result, you know, and that's, you know, hurting Russian refined product supplies domestically in Russia.

As a result, Russia has banned exports of diesel.

It's the second largest diesel exporter in the world.

And so that has tightened global markets for refined products as well.

But it has also, interestingly,

on the margin, eased global crude markets because now Russia has actually increased its exports of crude because the refined capacity has been damaged by the Ukrainian attacks.

And so as a result, it increased its exports of crude.

So it kind of also helped widen the crack spread.

I think it's probably near the peak.

I think that these dynamics are probably going to reverse over the coming months, but it's been something interesting to watch.

I mean, the lesson from 2022, the disruption at the time, is that, yes, it does take time between the peak in crude prices and the peak in the crack spread.

So back then, the peak in crude prices came ahead of the peak in the crack spread.

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