Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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NAB Morning Call · We don’t talk any more · 10 Aug 2026 podcast

So we saw in the back half of last year, you know, capacity utilisation go up, business conditions lifted.

Uh and then as we've moved through the first six months of twenty twenty-six, effectively we've unwound that nice little cyclical

uh uplift uh in in those parts of the survey.

So we're sort of back to where we were this time last year and I guess

You know, the question in our minds is, you know, some of that unwind was probably driven by the fact that the Reserve Bank delivered three rate hikes earlier in the year.

Some of it was probably due to maybe businesses being quite cautious given everything that played out in the Middle East uh through March and April and into May.

And then I guess the question is like where to from here?

So do we continue to see a a sort of slowing in some of those key indicators as we move through the third quarter?

And if so

Yeah, that would really cement this notion that yes, the economy is slowing as we move through the year, or do we see a little bit of a bounce?

And so that's what we'll be looking for in today's uh business survey.

I think uh given our surveys released at eleven thirty and we hear from the RBA at two thirty probably probably won't won't come in time um, you know, to to sway their decision.

But uh you know, the market and the consensus of economists very strongly of the view that uh the RBA will will pass uh today and leave rates unchanged were of that view as well.

Uh, and I think the broad story there is just simply that, you know, relative to the forecast set that they put out in May, inflation's a little bit lower than they thought, unemployment rate's a little bit higher.

Uh those forecast misses haven't been significant, but maybe they just mean that, you know, you've got

uh things moving broadly in the right direction and so no sort of impetus to to to move rates in any direction.

And then of course we've got what's playing out in housing as well.

And so get you know, I guess the RBA probably wants a bit more time to sit back and and watch.

But markets are very much of the view that this is going to be a hawkish hold.

So, you know, she's gonna speak.

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