Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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NAB Morning Call · Oil slides through the Strait, but underlying Aussie CPI is sticky · 24 Jun 2026 podcast

trim mean forecast.

And so it's consistent with this notion that, you know, just over the last maybe six weeks or so, that distribution of risks around the central CPI forecast seemed to have shifted in a more favourable direction.

So for us, this is, you know, a bit like, as you were, like we said, better news on headline, you know, a little bit uncomfortable on the core measure, but certainly doesn't, you know, make us want to change our view on our RBA call.

And we actually think that, you know, maybe

the RBA could actually get a small pleasant surprise when we see the full quarterly set of numbers next month.

Yeah, that's right.

So we were at one point thinking that headline inflation would peak at 5% in the second quarter, and now that peak is going to be somewhere in the low fours.

um you know quite a quite a significant difference in i guess optically where headline is is peaking and and you know really in terms of the cost of living story here in australia it's actually headline that that matters right because that's meant to be sort of reflective of the the goods and services that the average household uh consume so good news

for inflation expectations in the sense that peaking in the low fours is much better than peaking at five.

But it's really that core measure.

And I think the RBA is sort of intimated that, look, they're not that phased about second quarter inflation.

There's not a lot we can do about it.

We know some of these cost pressures are going to be passed on.

I think what they're far more focused on is making sure that those first round price increases don't morph into second round effects in the back half of 2026.

So it's really third quarter and fourth quarter inflation that I think will be consequential for the rates

No, so we think they're done on lifting rates.

But is the

I mean, I think some economists have changed to have a similar view.

I mean, the market's still pricing in around a 30% chance of a hike in August.

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