Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

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NAB Morning Call · The truth about oil · 1 Jun 2026 podcast

And then also you can actually see uh in the data that inventory levels are are being rebuilt as well. matched

So it does feel like there's a little bit of precautionary behavior going on as firms try to get ahead of, you know, what could be matched

higher prices uh um in in the US and then also as you said some concerns around supply chain challenges uh as as well. matched

And I think just a little reminder that you know while markets seem to have broadly moved on from the Middle East conflict, you know, I think in the real economy there is still a sense that um you know the the effects of the Middle East crisis are going to have you know quite a long tail and be with us for matched

Yeah, that's right. matched

And and these are are data for May and they come on the back of, you know, some activity data for April that was much weaker than people expected. matched

So I guess just adding credence to this sense that it does feel like uh momentum in the Chinese economy has slowed as we've sort of transitioned from, you know, the end of Q one into matched

Q two and I guess, uh, you know, we'll wait and see where this lands. matched

But I think people's broad expectation is that if it goes too far, you know, the authorities will will be there to sort of put a floor under growth, and that's that seems to be the way they've generally behaved over the last couple of years, where matched

Yeah, they're they're happy to do enough in the way of stimulus to protect the downside, but not so much as to to really open up genuine upside for the the Chinese economy. matched

But I guess what it really sort of when you look at these PMIs in total, you know, what we really observe is just that outperformance by the US relative to Europe where, you know, their final PMI matched

for May was down around sort of six points. matched

Obviously softer PMI data in in China as well. matched

And so, you know, it does I guess bring back into focus that whole narrative that we had for a while last year around uh US exceptionalism and the outperformance of that economy and also its financial markets. matched

I don't know that they'd be so explicit about about that aim because I think they they realise um, you know, a lot of voters are also uh either own their home outright or, you know, at least have borrowed to to buy the money. matched

And there's the wealth impact matched

Yeah, I think they'd be a little bit careful about sort of saying, Oh, this is what we wanted. matched

Okay, they'd be matched

Possibly. matched

I mean I guess, you know, to the extent that the uh Treasury Secretary last week sort of said, Well, ultimately, you know, what we're trying to do is redistribute ho home ownership um across the country away from investors and towards owner occupiers. matched

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