Sally Auld
speaker
5,823 appearances
57 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 17 Aug
Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.
Appearances
Uh and I guess, you know, the market's mindset is basically that yes, there's a you know, some sort of naval blockade uh at the moment, but if the talks resume and uh you know a deal is done, then this is only a you know a very short term interruption to hopefully uh you know some better supply dynamics in the near term.
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Yeah, that's right.
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So if we look at the tenure part of the curve, you know, yields in in sort of Europe and the US were up sort of anywhere from two to to four basis points, depending on on the market, which is not a not a big uh big move one way or the other and and the US tenure yield is sort of settled around just shy of that four point three percent level, so certainly higher than it was, you know, pre pre conflict.
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Um, but in tur in level terms, you know, these are not overly
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sort of shocking outcomes I think for fixed income.
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But you're right.
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Like I you know, what really matters for fixed income markets is growth and inflation.
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And you'd argue in most countries the trade off between those two things has has worsened.
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We're looking at higher inflation.
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and lower growth and the IMF made that pretty clear in their report uh earlier in the week.
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And so that does put fixed income in a in a bit of a a tricky
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A tricky position and I think at the moment uh you know we had a vi pretty violent repricing in front end yields, you know, at the beginning of the Iranian conflict.
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Um some of that is now unwound, but we're still I guess waiting on you know central banks to see exactly which way they jump.
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Um and I guess you know as we move towards the end of the month we're gonna get ECB uh and and the Fed and the Bank of England and then early next.
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next month uh the RBA is so I suspect in, you know, three weeks or so we'll know uh a whole lot more about the way central banks are are viewing the implications of the the conflict.
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Yeah, that's right.
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So, you know, as we said, S and P making a new record high, but European equities um down Eurostocks off about seven tenths of a percent.
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Um y you know, the the peak to decline trough in European equities as a result of the crisis was about eleven percent.
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Um and that we still haven't sort of got back to where we were pre crisis.
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And I think a couple of reasons for that.
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