Sally Auld

speaker

5,823 appearances 57 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 17 Aug

Sally Auld’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

Trend

recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 3.

Appearances

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NAB Morning Call · Reserves add a little light relief · 9 Mar 2026 podcast

To put some numbers down on paper because there are a bit more bit more uncertainty around, I guess, that transmission mechanism. voice-verified

But the broad story for central banks is effectively that they're moving further away on both of their mandates when we get a negative supply-side shock like this. voice-verified

So inflation's going up, and we're now starting to worry about downside risk to growth and therefore to the labour market. voice-verified

So it's a it's a pretty uncomfortable situation. voice-verified

Normally central banks I guess have taken the template that they look through the price shock because they know that's going to be temporary and they really focus on the growth implications. voice-verified

Uh and that's certainly the way voice-verified

They have historically approached episodes like this, but I think it's important to remember that that was against a backdrop of low and stable inflation, and that's not what we have had, I guess, over the last five years. voice-verified

And in the case of Australia in particular, the starting point is far less favourable. voice-verified

Inflation's already too high, the labour market's too tight, growth is pushing up against capacity constraints, and you know, as the RBA governor told us last. voice-verified

last week they are a little bit worried about short term inflation expectations. voice-verified

So that seems to be the way, you know, markets are trading it, which is to worry much more about the inflationary consequences uh than the g than the growth. voice-verified

The growth consequences. voice-verified

At this point in time, absolutely. voice-verified

We haven't changed our forecast. voice-verified

Uh, you know, I think we were we were talking yesterday saying it's it's sort of hard with the pace at which things are moving, uh and the uncertainty around all of this to be, you know, super high conviction on anything at the moment. voice-verified

But I think, you know, the first sort of voice-verified

I I guess part of all of this is that central banks are going to be reasonably cautious. voice-verified

And so of course the RBA Monetary Policy Board has a meeting next week, um and voice-verified

You know, I I think, you know, there that they they probably would say, look, there's probably just some benefit in waiting to see how all of this plays out. voice-verified

But yes, I think given the starting point for Australia and, you know, some reasonably hawkish comments from the RBA governor uh last week, I think at this stage we're still comfortable with our call for another hike in May. voice-verified

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