Sam Goldfarb
speaker
106 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2019
last heard Apr 2021
Sam Goldfarb’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
WSJ Your Money Briefing · Interest Rates: Fed's Cut Could Mean Higher Bond Yields · 1 Aug 2019
podcast
I think that data has been somewhat volatile in a report like this Chicago one.
It's kind of known for its volatility.
On the other hand, this is the second month in a row that this survey has shown an actual contraction in activity.
This is one of several regional surveys.
You'll have some regional surveys that come out a little bit better than expected and seem to show that things are relatively okay in the U.S., others that are more negative like this one.
But just overall, the big picture, you have signs that economic growth in the U.S.
is still there.
We're not heading towards a recession, but there does definitely seem to be kind of a little bit of a slowdown from the tax cut fueled growth of last year.
Yeah, so basically investors are for a while now have been picking up on sort of, you know, these dovish signals from the Fed and have thought that the Fed is not just going to cut rates, you know, this month, but will do at least one more later this year.
If, you know, any signs that the Fed is that this was the only cut of the year, that shows that like the expected interest rates, even though the Fed is cutting interest rates now, that shows that the path of future interest rates is changing.
a little bit higher than people were expecting, and that pushes up short-term yields in particular.
Right.
So there's this direct relationship between the interest rates that the Fed sets and short-term treasury yields.
So if the Fed keeps interest rates that it controls at a higher level than investors expect, that impacts the short-term yields.
On the other hand, for longer-term U.S.
government bonds, which maybe are more important in terms of setting interest
borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.
Other factors are at play.
So sure, if the Fed is more hawkish than people were expecting, that sort of has this natural upward pressure, puts this natural upward pressure on even long-term yields.
On the other hand, if the
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