Samuel Charap

speaker

472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

There's this sort of kill zone and the battlefield has become essentially transparent.

So, yes, I do think that you could imagine quite an effective defensive fortification line.

And we can also think about how a ceasefire could essentially create zones where Russia and both sides, but in this case, Russia would have to withdraw weapons from so that there would be ample warning if it were to seek to cross that line again.

Now, of course, none of this, I should underscore, a determined aggressor will do what it wants, sometimes despite knowing that it will, in fact, lose, right?

So, I mean, they're not a guarantee in the sense like you buy a...

A webcam with a guarantee.

You can't bring it to the store and get your money back.

But this is – these are, I think, the best we can do under very disadvantageous circumstances to create a sort of web of incentives and disincentives that makes –

further future aggression, you know, far less likely.

Well, so I think perhaps most importantly, the Ukrainians themselves have taken a step back while sort of saying that ideally, of course, we would want to be members of NATO.

They haven't really objected to this being taken off the table.

Politically, how that is formulated is quite challenging because of the way it's been inserted into the Ukrainian constitution.

But nonetheless, you know, when I was last in Kiev in December of last year, you know, consistently hearing the view that no one is going to fight for us, I mean, which is a logical conclusion to come to after four years of war.

no one fighting for them, that, you know, I think that that has essentially been taken off the table.

Now, there is this question about, again, and there's a lot of planning going on, including in the UK and as well as France.

And in fact, French president and the UK prime minister are publicly committed to deploying this force to Ukraine after a ceasefire.

You know, here, I'm quite skeptical.

I mean, I think that...

The credibility question really does come into play.

And then, you know, we'll face a question, or the alliance will, essentially, if these forces come under attack of either...

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