Samuel Charap

speaker

472 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Mar 2026 last heard 24 Mar

Samuel Charap’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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80,000 Hours Podcast · #240 – Samuel Charap on how a Ukraine ceasefire could accidentally set Europe up for a bigger war · 24 Mar 2026 podcast

And maybe it's going to be more than 1550, which was the limit under New START.

But I think having a limit that is verifiable particularly avoids the kind of worst-case assumptions that often drive these things.

Well, I'm not sure necessarily I argued against it.

I think that pointing out the potential escalation risks, at the time in early and mid-2022, of course, I think we had no idea about this environment we were entering into.

And if someone told anyone in my field that the U.S.

would be providing

long-range strike to Ukraine that Ukraine would be using to hit cities inside of Russia in 2021, I would have looked for the nearest bomb shelter.

So we've been learning because these are unprecedented situations.

I think the reality is that public opinion in Sweden and Finland shifted pretty dramatically.

And they had always been in the position of being, you know,

as integrated with NATO as possible without actually being members and thus positioning themselves to become members quite quickly.

And so, you know, that has happened.

I think the question really is how we manage that after the war and after Russia's sort of attention is not as directly focused on Ukraine.

I mean, you know, from Finland's perspective, the security environment in the immediate sense

has somewhat improved because a lot of the units that were previously stationed along its border have been chewed to pieces in Ukraine.

But Russia has announced plans to dramatically increase its presence near Finland, in the Baltic,

in, you know, by in the years to come.

And, you know, while I'm sure they will be behind schedule and it won't be quite what they advertise, I would imagine that some of that will come to pass.

So the real question, I think, is now that we have this new reality and you're right, logistically, it makes defense of the Baltic states much easier, but it does create

a potential more unstable security dynamic involving Russia.

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