Sarah Holder
speaker
234 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard Aug 2025
Sarah Holder’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Odd Lots · Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade · 31 Aug 2025
podcast
A few years after prediction markets hit the scene, the industry faced a major roadblock.
People were flocking to sites like Polymarket and Call Shi, but the platforms were operating in a regulatory gray area.
And Bloomberg reporter Annie Massa says they drew the attention of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or the CFTC.
It's a federal agency that regulates the derivatives market, which, unlike traditional gambling, is not regulated by the states.
CFTC first targeted Calci back in 2023.
The regulator claimed that the political betting the platform facilitated was illegal and ordered them to stop operating.
Bakalchi sued, and after a federal court battle, the CFTC dropped its appeal in May of this
In 2022, the US banned Polymarket outright.
That meant US-based users weren't allowed to place bets on the site.
Polymarket was almost in exile
That didn't stop the site from featuring bets about the US.
In 2024, PolyMarket hosted millions of dollars in bets about whether or not Donald Trump would win the presidential election.
Spoiler alert, he won, just as polymarket users had predicted.
I remember that with the presidential election, that it was kind of like an informal poll that actually ended up being more accurate.
Then in July of this year, the US government and Polymarket found a way to move forward.
The US shut down the two federal probes opened under the Biden administration, and Polymarket bought a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse called QCX, which gave them stronger legal standing to operate in the US.
You both mentioned how influential polymarket and calci's predictions have grown as a cultural force, a political force.
Where do you see that influence going next?
Yeah, that's disturbing people betting on something that could destroy people's livelihoods or or their lives.
But I guess that w once you open that door, anything can go on the platform.
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