Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Podcasts, radio, news. Would you consider yourself a Swifty? I think it's a scale. Like oh so many group chats this week, I found myself talking with my coworkers about Taylor Swift.
I like her music, but I'm not like keeping up with every single thing she does with her life.
That's Bloomberg's personal finance reporter, Francesca Maglione. I am a big fan. And that's Annie Massa, a Bloomberg welcome.
reporter. I am probably not all the way down the rabbit hole on every single development and every single Easter egg and every single song. But was I singing August in honor of my friend's birthday at a karaoke bar last week? Yes.
Taylor Swift and NFL player Travis Kelsey announced their engagement on Tuesday. And I wanted to talk to Francesca and Annie because there's one corner of the universe that's been turning their engagement into a money-making event. The people making predictions and financial bets on where their relationship will go next.
We had a like a bet on our team and people had to give their like what they thought was gonna happen with them in twenty twenty five and I had said that they were gonna break up so I don't think I was expecting that at all.
Did you lose money on that bet?
No, no, no money was involved thankfully.
The rise of legal online betting in the US over the last few years has ushered in all kinds of bets, like bets on current events and pop culture, made on prediction markets like Polymarket and CalShi.
So far this year, both of these platforms have had more than a billion in trading volume, so they've become more significant as the years go by.
Within hours of Taylor and Travis's announcement, gamblers on Calchi had placed about $80,000 worth of bets on the couple's wedding timeline. And by Thursday, that number had doubled to around $160,000. By Thursday afternoon, the odds of Taylor and Travis getting married by the end of the year hovered at around 7%.
I was not placing any bets personally, but I was kind of bearish. So here we are and very happy for them, obviously. Yeah. Bullish now on Travis and Taylor. A hundred percent.
I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. Today on the show, how prediction markets work, why they're exploding in popularity, and what this all means for the people and events they're betting on. Betting isn't new. Humans have been doing it for millennia, but online prediction markets like PolyMarket and Call Shi have recently surged in popularity in the US.
Why are people betting on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding timeline?
If I've never used Polymarket before or Call Shi, is this like sports betting or is it different?
How does it actually work? The easiest explanation would be in the context of a presidential election, who will win? Kamala Harris or Donald Trump? That's Bloomberg Wealth Reporter, Annie Massa. And you can bet on who will win. But now you're able to get odds effectively on all sorts of other different things. So will this event happen in the future? Yes or no? Will Taylor Swift release an album by the end of the year? Yes or no. The
odds of that went up significantly. Yes, exactly.
And and you can watch in real time as these odds change based on who's placing bets for yes, no, or a range of other different outcomes for depending on the type of market it is.
Polymarket was founded in 2020, and it's gotten major funding support from Peter Thiel and Ethereum founder, Vitalik Buterin. This year alone, its nearly 230,000 monthly users have placed nearly $16 billion of bets on real-world events. Here's Francesca Maglione, Bloomberg's personal finance reporter.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:20
2
Why are people betting on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s wedding timeline?
3:20–9:00
3
How do prediction‑market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi actually work?
9:00–11:45
4
What are the current betting odds and total money staked on the Swift‑Kelce wedding?
11:45–16:54
Speakers
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