Scott Lucas

Whether you're talking about their military response in the Strait of Hormuz, whether you talk about their counter affecting the global economy, the retaliation of the Gulf states, for example, or even how they maneuver around possible talks, the Trump folks don't know where they are going next because they have been demanding this regime surrender, and when they don't get it,

They're stuck in this cul-de-sac, which is where do you go next?

Because every move the Trump folks make that could force regimes to surrender is going to carry cost.

It's going to carry cost on the global economy because it will continue to raise the uncertainty over oil, gas, vital commodities, fertilizers.

And it will carry costs with American domestic opinion because the large majority of folks don't want this war to continue.

I can never be reasonably confident of what happens in the Trump administration.

But as an analyst, I can set you out the position we were at a couple weeks ago when it looked like, okay, maybe they'll put the ground troops in.

First, the military advised the Trump folks who might favor that operation, it's not going to be easy.

And for all the bluster of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, he can't change that reality.

Secondly, as soon as you put those ground forces in,

Precisely because, for example, let's say you try to occupy Karg Island through which 90 percent of Iranian oil passes.

Then you further limited oil supplies.

And so you've caused more risk to the global economy, plus the Iranian retaliation that might ensue against Gulf states.

And then thirdly, you will contradict that Trump promise he made in 2024 that no more foreign interventions.

Now, he's already broken that promise by going to war with Iran.

But, of course, by putting ground troops in, you raise the specter, which is always there in American culture about what happened in Iraq after 2003.

So I can't tell you it's not going to happen, but I'm not seeing the signals from the Trump folks, which they were putting out three, four weeks ago.

Look, we're moving these amphibious assault ships with Marines into the area.

Look, we've deployed 1,000 members of the 82nd Airborne Unit.

It's been very quiet in terms of priming the media for any potential operations.