Shane Oliver
speaker
113 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 22 Jun
Shane Oliver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
I think from the get-go, the market reaction has been fairly mild.
So what we're talking about here is quite a significant disruption to the stratiform moves.
20% of oil and gas on a daily basis normally flows through that straight.
There were some diversions.
which maybe get you back to a 10% to 15% disruption.
Of course, we've been able to get by globally by running down reserves so far.
So that's why we haven't seen a lot of pain, despite a lot of talk about it.
But if it stayed closed, then that would have been catastrophic globally.
So I think markets, right from the get-go, who've sort of taken their cue from Donald Trump, they've learned from last year, Donald Trump likes to taco, Trump always chickens out.
And so consequently, markets have always been allowing for this possibility that he would chicken out and there would be some sort of deal.
uh even though a lot of those he said oh the war's nearly over uh they want to talk to us this has been the message almost yeah regularly over the last few months now uh a peace deal is imminent we're going to sign it on the weekend oh whoops no but take a bit longer but the markets i think have been generally right to price that in and he's basically confirmed as much he said he had to back down because uh otherwise we'd have a global recession
And so I think markets basically have got it right.
And right now, like as we're talking, we're $75 West Texas, about $78, $79 Brent.
That's about $10 above where we were before the war started, still higher than it was earlier this year.
But it's sort of not a catastrophic outcome and it's still allowing this possibility that, yes, there will be a peace deal and the oil will continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which it's started to pick up.
So I think markets have generally been right.
Where it could all fall apart, of course, is...
We're now into a couple of months of talks.
It's quite easily the case that this could fall apart.
But I think markets still have this faith that Trump will deliver and that ultimately he will back down.
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