Shane Oliver
speaker
113 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 22 Jun
Shane Oliver’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jun 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Well, I tend to think not.
I mean, if I'm just looking at the market in the context of the way I've looked at it for the last 30 or 40 years, then I would say share markets are overvalued, particularly when you look at where bond yields are.
You're getting paid a very low risk premium.
And I've been surprised at the resilience of markets.
both in terms of what's gone in the Middle East, the impact of the tariffs, the inflation scare, because what's happening here in the US, it's a bit worse there than it is here.
But basically, you've had a supply shock coming out of the pandemic.
That was made worse by Ukraine.
A few years later, we get the tariff shock in the US.
Now, admittedly, that's not an issue for Australia.
because prices here shouldn't go up because of U.S.
tariffs, but it is an issue in the U.S., and now we've had a war.
So America's had four shocks, and now you're piling another one on top of that, which is the AI boom.
Now, AI over time could put downwards pressure on inflation because it boosts productivity, less workers, and so on.
But in the short term, it's leading to a massive boom.
So basically you've had five shocks coming in the U.S.
on top of each other, the latest one being AI putting upwards pressure on prices.
which make the world all a bit inflation prone.
Then you've got deglobalisation, decarbonisation, increased defence spending, less workers generally.
Maybe that's offset by AI as my generation moves towards retirement.
And you've got a smaller generation coming up below that.
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