Skanda Amarnath
speaker
150 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Skanda Amarnath’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And if that happens, then the box opens up.
They might cut corporate taxes more, but there's also more discretion on like trade and immigration that Trump could y wield.
Yeah, bellwether counties are basically fake, right?
So like what matters like you can have we've had in 2020 and 2016 where it's p-hacking, isn't it?
find
I mean we have every county is moving somewhere at the margin, right?
And every marginal vote counts.
So if like
Let's say Harris is really well at just trimming Trump's margins in rural counties.
That's like a big deal.
In the same way that Trump's ability to amplify them in 2020 was very underrated by the polls, by general expectations among forecasters.
That he was able to scale rural turnout, even the percent margins, which people obsess about, percentage margins in a lot of deep red counties did narrow in twenty twenty.
But just because turnout was ramped up even further.
Trump got more margin.
And so a lot of states were a lot closer than what the polls predicted.
You find your ways to cluster the counties, whether it's uh urban, suburban, exurban, rural, whatever way you want to swing it.
The
That cluster, every single one matters, right?
Every part of it, like there's gonna be some movement among
the urban counties, those that are among that are trending blue.
Showing 61–80 of 150 · page 4 of 8
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