Skye Masters

speaker

5,023 appearances 53 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 2 Aug

Skye Masters’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 28 in all, peaking in Mar 2026 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Back from the brink, but not far back · 8 Apr 2026 podcast

So if you look at the US OIS curve at the start of the week, I think it was pricing in a small risk of a rate hike. matched

by the Fed. matched

By the end of the year it's now pricing in cumulative nine basis points of cuts by the Fed by the end of the year. matched

For the E C B the market now prices a cumulative fifty three basis points of hikes by the end of the year, which is down from around seventy four basis points priced earlier in the week. matched

So you are seeing some unwinding of central bank expectations, but still not back to to where we were before the conflict. matched

There still is matched

that are known and concern around the inflationary impacts. matched

Yes, the oil price is quite a bit lower overnight, but WTI is still around nine US dollar ninety five a barrel. matched

Prior to the conflict it was sort of down at the low sixties. matched

So there's still an inflationary impact to come through. matched

Yeah, so the Fed Minutes, I mean, one key takeaway I guess from the Fed Minutes was that there appeared to be a growing support of a more balanced language. matched

So obviously the majority of the participants still viewed that there was another rate cut to be delivered by the end of the year, no surprise because you could see that in the in the dot plots. matched

But as I said, there did seem to be this growing support in of matched

More balanced language and in the minutes it said some participants judged that there was a strong case for a two sided description of the committee's future interest rate decisions. matched

So I guess that's taking into account the unknown around what's going on in inflation. matched

You get a PCI out tonight in the US and the expectations is for another relatively strong print on that front. matched

Sort of core is expected to be at point four. matched

So we sort of know matched

that in the US inflation ahead of this conflict inflation was starting to head in the wrong direction and but it's that balance how do they balance their dual mandate inflation and what's going on in the labour market and I guess those participants who were looking for at least one more rate cut before the end of the year, they're really m sort of focusing on what's going on in the labour market. matched

Yeah, so it was an interesting post meeting statement. matched

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