Sophia Puccini

Manifold markets ran manifold love, and it didn't work.

They had to shut it down because the amount of people for a given couple who had context on that couple and could reasonably infer how long their relationship might last was so small that it wasn't enough to make the markets liquid.

Why do you think sports gambling has just like dwarfed everything else combined on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi in terms of trading volume?

I think it's like 90% of Kalshi.

Yeah.

And everything else is 10%.

Totally.

I'm curious, in your article, My Best Idea Decision Markets, you said, decision markets are not my deepest, grandest, most beautiful, or hardest one insight, just the one with the biggest expected impact.

So if not decision markets, what insights do you think are your deepest, grandest, most beautiful, or hardest one?

Oh, you want me to brag?

You know there's a norm against that.

I noticed you didn't mention Age of M when talking about your greatest insights, which is my personal favorite Robin Hanson arc was Age of M. I think it was like incredibly prescient on the development of AI as we're seeing it now.

Right.

Well, we love Age of M. We love prediction markets.

We're so grateful to have you back on MTS.

Thanks so much for coming on, Robin Hanson.

Thank you for missing me.

Absolutely.