Spencer Aguiar

doing well thank you i appreciate you guys having me on again i will say this simon beautiful singing to lead into the show i'm probably i don't know what the odds would be on it plus a billion to actually sing on this show so if you guys can get me to do that that's the big money ticket to have out there well let's see if we can get you in by the end of the show spencer um shinnecock gorgeous course

Yeah, you kind of mentioned it at the beginning, like Shinnecock is widely regarded as one of the best championship tests that we get in this country.

And I think it's a funny answer when you consider that if we look at 2018, the last time it was played here, on average on the PGA Tour, players hit about 60% of the fairways.

Here you get 71% of a made fairway rate.

And

You hear that answer and you would think that there's going to be the straightforward setup for ease.

Accuracy is going to be the number one answer to the game, which in fairness it is.

But a lot of that is deeply rooted into you just cannot miss.

And we see this over and over again of where you take that 30% rate of people missing the fairway and you're essentially dead off the tee.

There's this five inch thick fescue rough if you are wayward.

it's a 7,440 yard layout, which means that if you're going to be conservative off the tee, now all of a sudden your second shot finds these secondary problems here into these fiery green complexes, because you are laying back off the tee and you're not getting the most out of your first shot.

So, you know, for me, when I look at this venue and I'm somebody that wishes we had more data to be able to pull from, you can pull from 2018, you can pull from 2004, but the,

The course is marginally different.

They made the fairways a little bit wider this go-around, and I do wonder from a statistical perspective if that changes anything, like if players like Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy really decide to get aggressive off the tee and kind of do this risk-reward and see if it pays off, and we'll see if it does or it doesn't.

But when I ran a model for this, the number one thing that I noticed is good shots are going to get rewarded,

bad shots get punished.

And to answer your question, Chad, I don't know if there's a specific game type that is the most geared to find success.

And for me, when we are putting together mathematical equations and trying to figure out the answer,

i think that's why people love this tournament so much because you can be accurate and you can find success you can be good around the green you can be a good putter as long as you're good in some of those areas you kind of have this blueprint for success so um you know of the four majors i would say and you know play into the name of the show here like this is probably one of the sharper majors that you can find for betters i think if you're trying to be a square better out there

the masters the open championship are probably the two that kind of yield that for whatever reason this historically and this is when i you guys mentioned at the beginning when i won best research article what i talked about is how the data played into every single tournament and where the sharps and the squares landed for everything and where you could find more success over a five-year period and the us open was the most sharp test of any of the majors so