Stephanie Roth

We ran some estimates looking at the rising unemployment rate since ChatGPT launched.

And we found that about half of the rising unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other half was more cyclical in nature.

So the extent to which, sure, there is half of it that is structural that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year if we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.

We ran some estimates looking at the rising unemployment rate since ChatGPT launched.

And we found that about half of the rising unemployment rate was tied to AI, and then the other half was more cyclical in nature.

So the extent to which, sure, there is half of it that is structural that will probably continue to rise, but the portion of it that is cyclical might actually reverse this year if we actually do get a cyclical improvement in the economy.

Yeah, I think it's a Fed that is comfortable with the backdrop of data, which I think is the right call.

The data seemed to be improving from here.

We actually think that it will continue to get better, in which case this will certainly be the last cut under Chair Powell.

There's no more cuts under Chair Powell.

He's done.

And I think that's right.

He's fading into the sunset and just wants to avoid all of the questions that he didn't really want to answer.

Yeah, I mean, last night it was getting to be a little bit concerning when Trump made the comments regarding his comfort around the sharp drop in the dollar that we've seen.

That could also have reverberations throughout the rest of the market.

So I think that is fair to some extent.

Powell clearly don't want to comment on the dollar regardless.

But there was the legitimate risk, and there still is, that there could become reverberations as the carry trade unwinds.

But it seems that Besant is very well aware of the aftermath of that.

Yeah, we're probably going to see a backdrop where we're likely to have some firm goods prices in the next couple of months in the sense that, one, you tend to have, there's some seasonal issues in some of the data.