Stephen Dubner

speaker

14,303 appearances 95 recordings 4 series first heard Dec 2024 last heard 18 Sep

Stephen Dubner’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 62 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 12.

Appearances

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Freakonomics Radio · 686. Why Is It So Hard to Find an NFL Quarterback? · 11 Sep 2026 podcast

How well can you measure what you're talking about now, this intense level of voice-verified

There are a lot of morals to the Kurt Warner story. voice-verified

For our purposes today, I think the main one is this. voice-verified

When you draft your quarterback, what you're betting on is potential. voice-verified

Past results, as the mutual fund people like to say, do not guarantee future performance. voice-verified

So how are you supposed to figure out that bet? voice-verified

Historically, this job has been the domain of NFL scouts voice-verified

Hatman worked in the scouting department of three NFL teams, and he left in 2014 to launch his own firm to teach others what voice-verified

most football fans would think, that with the amount of data that's produced by a top-tier college quarterback and the amount of scrutiny... voice-verified

that choosing a great quarterback for the NFL would be pretty easy. voice-verified

It is very much harder than it looks. voice-verified

For someone from the outside who might say, well, I don't understand. voice-verified

I mean, these people are doing essentially the same thing in two different environments that are fairly similar. voice-verified

What's your best explanation for that sort of philosophical voice-verified

five or 10 or however many things you need to have to have a chance to be really good as an NFL quarterback. voice-verified

there's one paper by Wolfson, Adana Schmicker from 2011 called The Quarterback Prediction Problem. voice-verified

This was published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. voice-verified

These authors write, college and combined statistics have little value for predicting whether a quarterback will be successful in the NFL. voice-verified

Let's start with that. voice-verified

Agree or disagree with that statement? voice-verified

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