Tamay Besiroglu

And that will mean that there is different actuals.

And some countries might have much faster growth than other countries.

But I would expect that at a jurisdiction level, it will be more homogenous.

So, for example, I expect the primary obstacles to come from things like regulation.

And so I would just imagine it's being like more delineated by regulatory jurisdiction boundaries than anything else.

Or even to be discovered.

Like there's an aspect of it that where you discover certain things by…

scaling up learning by doing, this driving learning curve.

And there's this separate aspect where you get to, like, suppose that you become wealthier.

Well, you can invest that increased wealth in, like, yeah, you use it to accumulate more capital, but you also can invest it in R&D and other ways.

Right.

I mean, so Robin Hanson has this abstraction of like seeing things in near mode versus far mode.

And I think if you don't know a lot about the topic, then you see it sort of in far mode and you sort of simplify it.

That's right.

Things you know, you see a lot more detail.

Like in general, I think the thing I would say and the reason I also believe that just like abstract reasoning and like sort of doctor reasoning or even Bayesian reasoning by itself is not like sufficient or like is not as powerful as many other people think is because I think there's just this like enormous amount of

richness and detail in the real world that you just can't reason about it.

You need to see it.

And obviously that is not an obstacle to

AI being incredibly transformative.