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Tamay Besiroglu

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
878 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Right, but he's imagining a separate thing called the AI economy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Why would you imagine that?

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

That seems like a... I think it's probably downstream of his views about the software-only singularity, but again, those are views that we don't share.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Yeah.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

And then it's something clearer.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Like, for example, people might have the intuition.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I brought this up before.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Like, the distinction between what is the minimum possible amount of build-out that would be necessary to get this feedback loop up and running and what would be the most efficient way to do it, which are not the same question.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But then people have this view that, oh, like, the most efficient thing, in principle, we can't do that because, like...

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Okay, so I think that is like...

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Eventually, you expect the AI systems to be driving most of the economy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

And I don't think that's a โ€“ like, unless there are some very strange coincidences where, like, humans are able to, like, somehow uplift themselves and, like โ€“

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

able to become competitive with the AIs by stopping being biological humans or whatever, which seems very unlikely early on, then AI is just going to be much more powerful.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

And I agree that in that world, if the AI is just somehow coordinated and decides, okay, we should just take over or something, just somehow coordinated to have that goal, then they could probably do it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Okay.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But, okay, that's also probably true in our world.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

Like, in our world, if the U.S.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

wanted to invade Central Island, then probably they could do it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

I don't think anyone could stop them.

Dwarkesh Podcast
AGI is Still 30 Years Away โ€” Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu

But, like, what does that actually mean?