Tamay Besiroglu

I mean, you need to, like that's the kind of thing I would be trying to do.

Like, I would say that it's important to... Like, in a lot of cases and a lot of situations, it's much more important to be...

maintain flexibility and the ability to adapt to new circumstances, new information than it is to get a specific plan that's going to be correct and that's going to be very detailed and has a lot of specific policy recommendations and things that you should do.

So that's actually also the thing that I would recommend.

If I want to make the

make the transition to AI in this period of explosive growth go better.

I would just prefer it if we, in general, had higher quality institutions.

But I am much less bullish on someone sitting down today and working out, okay, what will this intelligence explosion or explosive growth be like?

What should we do?

I think plans that you work out today are not going to be that useful when the events are actually occurring because you're going to learn so much stuff

that you're going to update on so many questions that these plans are just going to become obsolete.

That's right.

So for one example, I think I might have mentioned this off the record at some point, but

before the Second World War happened, people were, obviously people saw that there were all these new technologies, like tanks and airplanes and so on, which were now, like they exist in World War I, but in a much more primitive setting.

So they were wondering what is gonna be the impact of these technologies now that we have them in much greater scale.

And the British government had estimates of how many casualties there will be from aerial bombardment in the first few weeks of the Second World War.

And they expected hundreds of thousands of casualties, basically, in like two weeks, three weeks after the war begins.

So the idea was that air bombing is...

basically this unstoppable force.

All the major urban centers are going to get bombed.