Tamay Besiroglu

There's going to be some aspect to which

But if you look at the level of destruction that was expected within the space of a few weeks, and then this level of destruction took many years.

So there was like a two-order magnitude mismatch or something like that, which is pretty huge.

And that affected the way people think about it.

So the argument for why it's good is that we're going to have this enormous increase in economic growth, which is going to mean enormous amounts of wealth and incredible new products that you can't even imagine, and health care or whatever.

And the quality of life of the typical person is probably going to go up a lot.

Early on, probably also their wages are going to go up, because the AI systems are going to be automating things that are complementary to their work.

Or like it's going to be automating part of their work and then you'll be doing the rest and then you'll be getting paid much more on that.

And in the long term, eventually we do expect wages to fall just because of arbitrage with the AIs.

But by that point, we think humans will own enormous amounts of capital and there will also be like ways in which even the people who don't own capital we think are just going to be much better off than they are today.

Like I think it's just hard to express in words the amount of

wealth and increased variety of products that we would get in this world.

It would be probably more than a difference between like 1800 and today.

So if you imagine that difference, it's like such a huge difference.

And then we imagine like two times, three times, whatever.

So there are a couple of things here.

First of all, I think the way you think about this matter... So first of all, we don't actually think that it's clear whether speeding things up versus slowing things down actually makes a doomy outcome more or less likely.

I think that's just a...

question that doesn't seem obvious to us.

Partly because of our views on the software R&D side, we don't really believe that if you just pause and then you do research for 20 years at a fixed level of compute scale, that you're actually going to make that much progress on relevant questions on alignment or something.