Tamay Besiroglu

Imagine you were trying to make progress on alignment in 2016.

with the compute budgets of 2016.

Well, you would have gotten nowhere, basically.

You would have discovered none of the things that people have today discovered and that turned out to be useful.

And I think if you pause today, then we will be in a very similar position in 10 years.

We have not made a bunch of discoveries.

So the scaling is just really important to make progress and alignment, in our view.

And then there's a separate question of how long-term should you be in a very different sense.

So there's a moral sense or like how much should you actually care about people who are alive today as opposed to people who are not yet born.

That's just a moral question.

And there's also a practical question of, as we discussed, how certain can you be about the impact your present actions are actually going to have on the future?

But it's just important to understand the...

Like value of that, right?

Even in purely economic terms.

Like imagine that you would be like each year of delay might cause like maybe 100 million people, maybe more, maybe 150, 200 million people who are alive today to end up dying, right?

So even in purely economic terms, the value of a statistical life is pretty enormous, especially in Western countries.

Sometimes people use numbers as high as $10 million for a single life.

So imagine you do $10 million times 100 million people.

That's a huge number, right?

So I think...