Tamay Besiroglu

Like that is just so enormous that unless you're just, so I think for you to think that speeding things up is a bad idea, you have to first be like, just have this long-termist view where you look at the long run future.

You think your actions today have high enough leverage that you can predictably affect

the direction of long-run future.

So in relative terms, I agree the present moment is a moment of higher leverage and you can expect to have more influence.

I just think in absolute terms, the amount of influence you can have is still quite low.

So it might be orders of magnitude greater than it would have been 2,000 years ago and still be quite low.

In fact, this was even consistent with what I was saying earlier, that I was pointing out this like, oh, like good management and like good policies and those just contribute to TFP and they can be bottlenecks.

And I heard like...

And also the fact that like it's also plausible you're going to have the technology and the

But then some people are not going to want to deploy it, or some people are going to have norms and laws and cultural things that are going to make it so that AI is not able to be widely deployed in their economy, or not as widely deployed as it otherwise might be.

And that is going to make those countries or societies just slower.

Some countries will be growing faster, just like Britain and the Netherlands were sort of the leaders in the Industrial Revolution.

They were the first countries to start experiencing rapid growth.

And then other countries, even Europe, sort of had to come from behind.

Well, again, I just think we expect the same thing to be true for AI.

And, I mean, the reason that happened was exactly because of these kinds of reasons, where those countries had a culture or governance systems or whatever, which were just worse than bottlenecked the deployment and scaling of the new technologies and ideas.

It seems very plausible.

I mean, I think it would to some extent, but I'm not sure if I would expect that, like a year of lead to be...

enough to take a risk.

Because if you go to war with China, I mean, for example, if the US went to war with, if you replace China today with China from 1990, or if you replace Russia today with Russia from 1970 or 1980, it's possible that their ICBM and whatever technology is already enough