Tamay Besiroglu

This is the big underlying thing here.

Like if people were just very dismissive of China, then maybe this would be a reason to update.

Well, I agree it would be much greater.

I don't think we shouldn't focus on that.

But what I would say is, for example, if you're thinking about the capabilities of Go playing AIs, then the concept of a superhuman Go AI, yeah, you can say that is a meaningful concept.

But if you're developing the AI, it's not a very useful concept.

If you just look at the scaling curves, it just goes up and there is some human level somewhere.

But the human level is not...

privileged in any sense.

So the question is like, is it a useful thing to be thinking about?

And the answer is probably not.

It depends on what you care about.

So I'm not saying we shouldn't focus on trying to make the system smarter than humans are.

Like, I think that's a good thing to focus on.

So first of all, I think even if you view that along what you might call the intensive margin, in the sense that you just have more of the products you have today,

I think there is just a lot of, like there will be a lot of appetite for that.

Maybe not quite 100x, but like that might start hitting some diminishing terms.

Essentially the same objection where there are multiple things that can bottleneck progress.

So I would be much more convinced if someone pointed to an explicit thing.

They would be like, here, healthcare is this very important thing.