Tamay Besiroglu

And why should we expect AI to make that better?

That doesn't seem like that would get better because of AI.

So maybe healthcare just becomes a big part of the economy and then that bottlenecks.

So if there was some specific sector... But maybe the argument is that if there's even one...

No, if there's one, though, like if that's a small part of the economy, then you could just still get a lot of growth.

You just automate everything else.

And that is going to produce a lot of growth.

Right.

So first of all, you have to be specific about, OK, what are these tasks?

What are the current share in economic output?

The second thing is you have to be specific about how bad do you think the complementarities are.

So in numerical terms, economists use the concept of elasticity of substitution to quantify this.

So that gives you a numerical estimate of if you just have much more output on some dimensions but not that much on other dimensions, how much does that increase economic output overall?

And then there's a third question.

You can also imagine you automate a bunch of the economy.

Well, a lot of humans were working on those jobs.

So now, well, they don't need to do that anymore because those got automated.

So they could work on the jobs that haven't yet been automated.

So for example, as I gave the example earlier, you might imagine a world in which remote work tasks get automated first, and then sensory motor skills lag behind.

So you might have a world in which software engineers become physical workers instead.