Tamay Besiroglu

Of course, in that world, the wages of physical workers will be much higher than their wages are today.

So that reallocation also produces a lot of extra growth even in the – like if bottlenecks are maximally powerful.

Even if it's literally you just look at all the tasks in the economy and literally take the worst one for productivity growth, you would still get a lot of increase in output because of this reallocation.

If you run the software of the human brain.

I think we pointed this out before, again, talking about software on the singularity.

I said, like, if it's the product of computer experiments with research reference.

Yeah, but if one of those products doesn't scale, that doesn't limit, like, yeah, it means you're less efficient at scaling than you otherwise would be, but you can still

You're both saying that humans would be negatively contributing to output, but then you're also saying that we should put them into the... Okay, fair, fair, fair.

Yeah, so for what it's worth, we do have a paper where we go over all the arguments for against explosive growth.

And regulation, I think, is the one that seems stronger, says against.

Because the reason it seems strong is because even though we have made arguments before about international competition and variation of policies among jurisdictions and these strong incentives to adopt this technology both for economic and national security reasons.

So I think those are pretty compelling when taken together.

But even still, the world does have a surprising ability to coordinate on just not pursuing certain technologies.

Human clothing.

That's right.

So I think it's hard to be extremely confident that this is not going to happen.

I think it's less likely that we're going to do this for AI than it is for human cloning, because I think human cloning touches on some other taboos and so on.

Also less valuable, and probably less important also for national security in an immediate sense.

At the same time, as I said, it's just hard to rule this out.

So I wouldn't say, if someone said, well, I think there's a 10% or 15%, whatever, 20% chance that there will be some kind of global coordination of regulation, and that's going to just be very effective.