Tamay Besiroglu

Maybe it will be enforced through sanctions on countries that defect.

And then that is going to, maybe it doesn't prevent AI from being deployed, but maybe it just slows things down enough that you never quite get explosive growth.

I don't think that's an unreasonable view.

It's like 10% chance.

Could be.

Yeah.

I mean, some things that we've heard from economists... Again, there was this argument that... People sometimes respond to our argument about explosive growth, which is an argument about growth levels.

So we're saying...

we're going to see 30% growth per year instead of 3%.

They respond to that with an objection about levels.

So they say, well, how much more efficient, how much more valuable can you make like hairdressing or like taking flights or whatever or going to a restaurant?

And like that is just fundamentally the wrong kind of objection.

Like we're talking about the rate of change and you're objecting to it by making an argument about the absolute level of productivity.

And as I said before, it is not an argument that economists themselves would endorse if it was made about a slower rate of growth continuing for a longer time.

So it seems more like special pleading.

Right, but that was just purely digital service.

Well, I think the important thing would be, yeah,

One reason to be optimistic is if you think the AIs will literally be drop-in remote workers or drop-in workers in some cases.

If you have robotics, then companies are already kind of experienced at onboarding humans.

Like onboarding humans doesn't take like a very long time.