Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Zen and the Art of Trade Realignment · 7 Jul 2025 podcast

But then also when you look at some of the prices indices for a number of individual different countries, they're showing uh output um so export price declines going towards the US and particularly for Japan.

So it could be that actually J Japanese manufacturers are starting to take it on the margin as well.

And so that's gonna be relatively soft if that

uh does does persist there.

So I think for as long as this tariff uncertainty r remains, the Bank of Japan is gonna be on the sidelines.

No, we don't know what's in it.

So I'll refrain from making any comments on the uh conditions or confidence.

But just worth noting, over the say the past year, uh the prices side of the survey has been telling some really interesting stories.

So uh uh it's been picking up marginal compression, uh firms having a lot of trouble passing on those elevated cost growth to the end client, and that's partly uh helping with the moderation in domestic inflation there.

Uh so i it was

Pointed out in the um May Statement of Monetary Policy, also the February State of Monetary Policy, it's definitely been picked up in our survey as well over the past year.

right.

So uh when you look at market pricing, markets are almost fully priced, so uh looking at it's a twenty three point eight basis points price for today's meeting, so uh almost fully priced there.

Um but uh saying that, we do think uh the press conference will have uh less dovish guidance given the RBA is unlikely to want to sound pre committed.

Uh and if the policy rate is cut to three point six zero percent, which is what we expect, that's going to be within the range of the RBA staff's wide neutral estimates.

And so in that situation, uh the board has to have a good feeling for, well, if policy is in the realms of neutral, um, do we need to ease policy further?

Uh and I think in that context, you probably don't want to sound too pre-committed there.

Uh in terms of the decision itself, we think the RBA will be deciding between holding rates and cutting by 25 basis points.

Uh we don't think a 50 basis point cut will be on the table just given the de-escalation in uh trade tensions to some extent.

And also because you're seeing that really big uh rebound in equity markets as as well.

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