Tapas Strickland
speaker
3,313 appearances
30 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Aug 2025
Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Um so when you look at uh the labour force, um labour force growth has slowed quite quite noticeably.
That crackdown in immigration.
When you look at the participation rate, it fell a tenth uh in the household data.
And uh when you look at how many payrolls are needed to keep the unemployment rate stable
I've seen estimates out there that range from 44,000 to 77,000.
So you actually may not need that much payrolls growth to keep the unemployment rate broadly stable.
And on that note, the unemployment rate did fall the tenth to four point one percent, uh versus four point two percent previously.
And uh at least on the Bloomberg survey, most people had thought it would actually rise to four point three percent.
So yeah, uh the labor market's still um not loosening up as much as uh as say some people had thought, and certainly not as much.
Yeah.
So do you think that
Oh, I think there's a bit of volatility with state and local government employment, especially around the timing of the school year there.
Um but uh it it is interesting, the US unemployment rate has been broadly between four to four point two percent since March twenty twenty four.
Um and uh when you actually look at uh the Australian unemployment rate, that's been broadly stable at around four to four point one percent since March twenty twenty four as well.
Uh so uh where wherever you look at it, uh the labour market
market is still relatively uh tight, not tight enough to generate a lot of inflationary pressure, but still relatively tight out there in many countries right around the world.
The as I said, the market reacted quite sharply, and so when you look at Fed funds pricing at least, uh pricing is now back down for cuts to fifty one point four basis points for twenty twenty five from sixty-five basis points on Wednesday.
And when you look at the timing of those cuts, uh July is pretty much priced out now, and uh September now stands at eighteen point one basis points, or a seventy-two percent chance of a rate cut being priced in at the September meeting from twenty-nine point one basis points on Wednesday.
So uh pushing out and also lowering uh the number of potential cuts by the market there.
And I think I think that's about right because the the the debate on the F LMC, if you look at the people who have spoken recently talking about the prospect that the Fed could cut earlier, and you're talking about uh Fed Governor Waller, um Fed Governor Bowman, they're all talking about how the labour market was softening and uh why wait for a further softening um and uh at least it's
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