Tapas Strickland

speaker

3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Fed all agree to hold, but mixed view on dots as outlook weakens · 18 Jun 2025 podcast

Powell made uh two interesting comments in his press conference.

So one was the labor market's not crying out for a rate cut, so pushing back a little bit on that story of labor market weakness.

Uh and and uh because the economy is still solid, we can take the time.

And then in terms of their view on tariffs, um, Chair Powell said, Everyone I know is forecasting a meaningful increase on prices from tariffs because someone has to pay for the tariffs.

We feel like we will learn a great deal more.

More over the summer on tariffs.

So I think effectively what that means is the Fed is on hold until the September October meetings when they get more clarity in terms of the pass through from tariffs to consumer prices.

So in some respects there wasn't that much uh coming out of the uh of the Fed meeting.

Um there was some hints.

There was

Yes, that's right.

So there's some hints of m maybe more of a stakeflation kind of scenario is what the headlines were saying, but I don't really uh buy into the those kind of headlines.

What you did see is the unemployment rate dot was lifted slightly to four point five percent at the end of twenty twenty five from four point four percent.

The GDP dot was lowered and had to be lowered given where growth was in in Q one and th that was lowered to one point four percent uh from one point seven percent.

Uh but in and and then the core PC dot was lifted to three percent in twenty twenty five from two point seven percent and and that's mainly because of the higher tariffs that came through during April, even though some of that obviously got got got reversed out again.

Um so in net not not that significant in terms of changes.

And I guess for uh forecasters at F for markets for beyond the next couple of years, the most important thing was their forecasts for potential

Growth wasn't changed, so that still sits around one point eight percent.

Their forecast for the longer run neutral rate uh wasn't changed either.

Uh and so those longer term uh benchmarks that people look at uh haven't really changed.

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