Tapas Strickland

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3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Fed all agree to hold, but mixed view on dots as outlook weakens · 18 Jun 2025 podcast

So what we're really discussing is about the near term and really we didn't get too much new light in terms of that.

Uh yes, and when you look at those economic surprise indices for the US, they're all pointing lower.

So uh I I guess in that sense, uh that run of weak econom e economic data has has continued there.

Uh and it just emphasizes that policy is uh in a restrictive stance and there's a bit of debate about whether it's moderately restrictive or m more substantially restrictive, but at least according to the median FLMC dot plot dot uh plot, if you look at that longer term

Fed funds rate, then you would have to say it is uh it is restrictive and then therefore the path of rates is is lower.

But um that's not gonna occur until you get more clarity in terms of what's going on with tariffs and inflation.

Yes, so the Rick Spaint cut rates by twenty five basis points to two percent and that had been about eighty percent priced by the market heading into the meeting.

But what surprised more was uh a mild dovish uh view there and an explicit raising of a prospect of a further cut by the end of the year.

And the press release noted that the forecast for the policy rate entails some probability of another cut this year.

So when you look at market pricing, they're pricing uh another seventeen point seven basis points by November there.

Uh similar to uh the US Fed, uh they also cut their twenty twenty-five GDP growth forecast, so uh to one point two percent from one point nine percent previously, but left their twenty twenty-six uh GDP forecasts uh unchanged at two point four percent.

And perhaps as an echo uh to Australia, although the labor market situation in Sweden is very different to the labor market situation in Australia, uh they just noted uh that consumption growth has been a lot slower to

to to pick up.

So in some countries around the world, consumers perhaps are still reacting to the very sharp rise in prices that they had seen over first o over the past couple of uh years and uh perhaps remaining a little bit more conservative for a little bit longer than what central banks had thought.

I don't think so.

And I I remember talking to you about the UK CPI on the morning call a month ago and just noting that uh a lot of the rise that we did see a month ago had been due to the timing of airfares because of that Easter period.

And indeed uh you got a substantial reversal coming out of that.

So I don't think there's real any implications uh from the CPI there.

Oh sure is and uh President Trump said he's gonna be uh meeting again today uh in the situation room.

So uh he he said he hasn't m made a final decision and uh I think uh he he asked he was asked a question explicitly about this and he said I may do it, I may not do it.

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