Tapas Strickland

speaker

3,313 appearances 30 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard Aug 2025

Tapas Strickland’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Should we be worried about US yields? · 21 May 2025 podcast

Away. matched

So when you look at the retail sales figures in volumes terms for Q1, they're actually relatively flat. matched

And you look at the profit reporting season, and most of the major retailers, particularly the supermarkets, are still reporting a lot of trading down and trading across the various store types. matched

So it seems like that real big uh income squeeze, the loss of real incomes from all the inflation that you have seen over the past couple. matched

couple of years uh is still leading households to be relatively cautious there. matched

Uh so I think that's just a really interesting development there and helps explain some of the um things that you've been seeing recently. matched

Well, that's a really good question, a really important question. matched

And unfortunately no one really knows the answer and you only really know the answer maybe five to ten years after the fact 'cause uh these are these are unfortunately unobserved variables. matched

Um but w what w what you can say is prior to the pandemic the unemployment rate was five point two percent. matched

Uh and most people had thought Nahru back then was probably in in the high fours or maybe or maybe um matched

um um low low fives. matched

Um and so uh having an unemployment rate of four point one percent and inflation being at target, I think is a phenomenal outcome, tremendous outcome for the Australian economy. matched

Uh there's been quite a few economists out there saying uh Nehru is could be as low as uh three and a half to four percent. matched

Now I think that's probably on the low side there. matched

Um but again we'll just have to see um there are many different matched

Interesting aspects in terms of uh labour market search, um questions when you ask people um, are you s seeking to change employment for for for higher wages and all those kind of things? matched

And all those are pointing towards uh less tightness in the labor market. matched

So the labour market might be less tight even though uh the unemployment rate is at four point one percent. matched

And although the RBA isn't willing to declare Nehru is lower than what their preconceived notions are. matched

Uh, in their forecasts for both wages and for inflation, they're applying a little bit of downward judgment relative to where their models would suggest given where their estimates of Nehru are. matched

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