Taylor Nugent
speaker
7,962 appearances
80 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard 27 Aug
Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.
Appearances
And so for us, we do think that the data flow looks like it looks like where they are at the moment.
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The data flow would need to give them a push to deliver an additional increase from here.
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Our view is that they're unlikely to get that push.
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They'll be able to to kind of stay on.
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on hold um ahead of uh some cuts um as we move into twenty twenty seven.
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Yeah, markets are are still pricing some risk of of tightening in the short term.
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That's you know, little changed from from where we were.
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We did see three year yields come off a a few basis points um in in response to uh that meeting with kind of that kind of residual hawkish rhetoric not not really exciting markets that were already pricing some risk of a another hike.
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Um there's now about you know fifty fifty chance of a an additional increase uh by by the end of the year.
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In in market pricing.
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And I think, you know, when you think about the the near term, um, you know, it's probably appropriate that there is some chance of of tightening in the next few months still price because, you know, for the next couple of quarters, unless we get uh, you know, a meaningful surprise on on growth or the labor market inflation, still likely to remain that that main concern for the RBA, even though we do expect that they're not going to ultimately deliver on an additional increase.
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Yeah, so you know the the Bank of Japan has been a a reluctant high cart this this cycle, but you know, that normalization path has has continued.
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They got that fifth increase this this cycle in as as you mentioned, taking the policy rate up to one percent.
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That's still below um their kind of estimates of of where neutral are.
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And so, you know, that rhetoric around, you know, normalization will continue um if um
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If that's kind of can their outlook is continued to be uh confirmed by by the data flow, that is still there.
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And so the direction of travel is is still up.
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But certainly in the the post-meeting press conference, um the deputy governor in um stepping in in Ueda's absence didn't give any particular hints on on timing there.
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Um markets have about 20 basis points or so uh priced by the end of the year, and that's again little change from where we were prior to the meeting.
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So, really, from the Bank of Japan, there were no surprises.
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Showing 861–880 of 7,962 · page 44 of 399
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