Taylor Nugent

speaker

7,962 appearances 80 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 27 Aug

Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Ratcheting Up · 6 Apr 2026 podcast

From an initially reported 92k. matched

So, you know, they're incredible volatility in in payrolls prints over the over the past three months. matched

Um, and so, you know, when you look at the market reaction, you did see a bit of a move higher in yields, um, you know, almost six basis points or so initially in in two years. matched

That was fairly short-lived though, but you know, held on to about three basis points of that gain. matched

When you look at Fed pricing, it essentially is as paired from about five. matched

Basis points of cuts by the end of the year to something closer to flat. matched

So there was a little bit of a move there. matched

If we look at the detail, you know, I mentioned there there is just that incredible volatility. matched

Some of it is there's kind of good reasons for it that we can point to. matched

Um there was the cycle of some strike activity in in February that had ended by March that drove some of that. matched

We had unusually good weather in March. matched

So, you know, you saw construction employment reasonably strong, for example, and and days lost. matched

Due to adverse weather was quite low. matched

And maybe there was some residual seasonality in the background there as well. matched

But if you try and look through that volatility, the three-month average payrolls growth was pretty healthy at 68k. matched

On a six-month average, it was it was 15k. matched

And so, you know, that under you know more normal circumstances would sound quite low. matched

But I think it is worth kind of just re-emphasizing. matched

Again, that uh that story that given uh labor supply growth is incredibly slow, that is, you know, more both of those numbers are uh enough to keep the unemployment rate from from rising. matched

Um and so it's worth highlighting there some recent research from Dallas and San Francisco Fed researchers that estimated that breakeven payrolls growth, so that number of jobs that you need each month to keep the unemployment rate from rising, it was, you know, up around 250k. matched

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