Taylor Nugent

speaker

7,962 appearances 80 recordings 1 series first heard Sep 2024 last heard 27 Aug

Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 36 in all, peaking in Nov 2025 with 5.

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NAB Morning Call · Ratcheting Up · 6 Apr 2026 podcast

A month in in 2023, and it was probably somewhere around minus 3K in late 2025. matched

So, you know, consistent with that uh story on the unemployment side that has said that even though you know payrolls was slower in 2025, being a bit stronger so far in in 2026, the unemployment rate hasn't risen. matched

If anything, it's come down a little bit. matched

And you know, that was the other uh key surprise from the um from the that March payrolls number with the unemployment. matched

Employment rate dropping back to to four point three percent. matched

Expectations were for it to stay steady at at four point four percent. matched

And on the second decimal place, they feel it was four point two six. matched

So you know, a fall in the in the matched

Yeah, that that's right. matched

So, you know, when we think about that, um, you know, that the outcome of that payrolls report, it just says, you know, the Fed has been pretty rightly worried that the risks are skewed to the downside for the labor market, but so far when you look at those ratios that are are a clearer signal given uncertainty around labor supply, we just haven't seen that translate through into into noticeable weakening in the unemployment rate. matched

It's around the middle of the range it's been in since since mid twenty twenty four. matched

I guess when you look matched

Forward, the key question is, you know, given the you know the additional shock coming out of the the Middle East, is is are we going to see uh those kind of you know some downside to the to the labor market re-emerge looking forward and the services ISM, as you say, the kind of numbers there, it did it did fall back um in a in a headline sense, um, but the employment numbers were were noticeably weak. matched

Um, and so that is something that is a consistent with matched

With the signal out of the uh the services PMI that was also um you know the final PMI that was out uh just uh um just ahead of of these data as well. matched

Um but yeah, that ISM services employment number it fell from 51.8 uh to to 45.2. matched

So quite a sharp fall in services and and something to watch. matched

Elsewhere in that survey, though, interestingly, and this was in contrast to the um the the SP global PMI. matched

Numbers, some of the orders components actually held up reasonably well, and so new orders rose a little up to 60.6. matched

Um, and even on the on the export side, they were a bit stronger. matched

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