Taylor Nugent
speaker
69 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 14 Jul
Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
Yeah, so I think the great thing about the survey is it's timely compared to a lot of the official data that comes out of the Australian Bureau of Statistics and other places.
And it also gives a bit of a more holistic picture because it talks about how businesses are feeling, what the confidence is, how they're seeing their conditions on the ground at the moment, but also in an environment in which supply pressures and the supply side of the economy has been so unhelpful over the past few years.
It also gives some insights about where businesses are operating relative to their capacity constraints, which is really important.
They're trying to measure that demand side of the economy against what that supply side can tolerate.
Yeah, that capacity realisation measure has been a very useful cross-check, if you like.
The RBA is obviously very concerned about what the output gap is, where demand is relative to supply.
And there's all sorts of kind of technical model-driven ways that you can try and get at this.
But a very important cross-check over the last couple of years has just been this long-standing survey of businesses.
What are they saying their capacity utilization is?
And it's been telling a pretty believable and plausible story in terms of that tightening in capacity utilization as we saw demand growth pick up through late 2024 and through 2025, and then encouragingly some easing back over the past six months or so.
Yeah, so we saw that sharp decline in business confidence in March after the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.
And as you say, three consecutive months of improvement since then.
I think, you know, what we can say there is just kind of the assessment of how big is this shock coming from the Middle East.
It's been being wound back as news on the oil price and the situation in the Middle East to turn a bit more positive.
And so we've seen that kind of incrementally move back higher over the past three months or so.
Although it's important to note their confidence at negative five, it's still below where it was in February, but certainly it looks like a much less remarkable drop off in confidence than what it initially looked like in March.
Yeah, so I think, you know, the confidence measure, it tends to be more volatile, especially when you get a shock and we saw it, you know, plummet in March and then recover.
Conditions has been more stable.
And so I think what we've seen recently is seeing that recovery in confidence and we've seen that stabilisation in business conditions.
So I think when you compare the two, what we can see is the conditions, they're probably a better read on what
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