Taylor Nugent
speaker
69 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 14 Jul
Taylor Nugent’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And so that's suggesting that some of that initial cost pressure did find its way downstream.
But maybe it's a positive sign that some of these risks of persistent inflation pressure were fading a little bit as we moved to June.
Of course, having said that, we know what's been happening in the Middle East over the past week or two.
And so there is a risk here that, you know, what the survey has been showing and what's clear is that that initial shock has faded.
It's smaller than was earlier feared.
But there is this risk that it's morphing from an acute, very large shock towards something that's a bit more rolling and a bit more protracted.
And so it will be interesting to see whether that kind of progress on those cost measures fully sustains.
Yeah, so that progress on a lot of the prices and cost measures hasn't been as obvious in labour costs.
We did see a move higher in June.
I think what we've seen there in previous years is after the announcements of the Fair Work Commission's award wage decision, when it has been larger than overall wages growth in the economy in periods where inflation growth has been higher than wages growth,
We have seen a bit of a spike in labour costs in June.
And so I think, you know, we wouldn't expect this to be a signal of a sustained broad-based uplift in labour costs, but it certainly points to those labour cost pressures still being a concern for a lot of businesses.
Yeah, so I think when the RBA is thinking about this, if we think about what the shock from the Middle East meant, it meant downside pressure on growth, it meant upside pressure on inflation.
That's a pretty unhappy mix.
What the survey is showing is that that downside activity shock may be a bit smaller than earlier feared and that upside inflation pressure a bit smaller than earlier feared.
And so that's something that is difficult for them to navigate.
But I think it means that those upside scenarios of inflation, that risk of persistent inflation, they're probably faded a little bit.
In the meantime, over the past few months, we've seen a more material slowing in housing markets than might have been expected only a couple of months ago.
And that creates, you know, add some new downside pressure on growth.
And we think with an RBA that thinks policy is somewhat restrictive.
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