Thomas Herndon
speaker
47 appearances
4 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2013
last heard May 2013
Thomas Herndon’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
They had left out Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada and Denmark.
And, you know, they say seeing is believing, but I almost didn't really believe my eyes.
New Zealand's single year, 1951, at minus 8% growth is held up with the same weight as Britain's nearly 20 years in the high public debt category at 2.5% growth, or Greece's nearly 20 years in the high public debt category at 2.5% growth.
Those are given equal weight.
So you average one year for New Zealand at minus 8% with 20 years for Britain at 2.5%, and you say, oh, those average out to about minus 3%.
I think that's a mistaken way to examine these data.
Yeah, I never for a second thought that the world would be interested in my econometrics replication paper.
Never for a second.
And I'm incredibly honoured to have been able to make this, you know, whatever small contribution I could to the discussion on such an important policy issue.
The paper was of interest from the very start.
It set this image of a threshold or cliff at 90% public debt to GDP, and beyond that, woe unto the country that passes.
We asked the students to replicate what they feel is an important paper in the economics literature.
and our student Thomas Herndon chose growth in a time of debt as his student project.
He kept coming back to us saying, I've tried A, I've tried B, I've tried C. I can't get their results.
Here are the results that I get.
We had this puzzle that we were unable to replicate the results as Reinhardt and Rogoff published them, and that really got under our skin.
Yes, after attempting but being unable to replicate the original results...
The course ended and we encouraged Thomas to continue his research.
In an attempt to take an average across 20 countries...
Reinhardt and Rogoff only included the cells for 15 countries.
Showing 21–40 of 47 · page 2 of 3
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