Thomas Herndon
speaker
47 appearances
4 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2013
last heard May 2013
Thomas Herndon’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
I immediately saw the spreadsheet error.
They left out five countries.
And you know, they say seeing is believing, but I almost didn't really believe my eyes.
Yep, there we go.
I immediately saw the spreadsheet error.
They left out five countries.
And, you know, they say seeing is believing, but I almost didn't really believe my eyes.
The paper was of interest from the very start.
It set this image of a threshold or cliff at 90% public debt to GDP, and beyond that, woe unto the country that passes.
We asked the students to replicate what they feel is an important paper in the economics literature, and our student Thomas Herndon chose Growth in a Time of Debt as his student project.
My heart sank, really.
I thought that I must have made some gross error somewhere.
It shouldn't be that hard.
You really need to go get this sorted out immediately.
We had this puzzle that we were unable to replicate the results as Reinhardt and Rogoff published them and that really got under our skin.
Yes, the course ended and we encouraged Thomas to continue his research.
He contacted Reinhardt and Rogoff and they kindly provided the actual working spreadsheet...
that they had used to produce the results in the paper.
I immediately saw the spreadsheet error.
They left out five countries out of the 20 countries.
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