The economics of Scottish independence

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More or Less 24 min 5 speakers 4 chapters transcribed 2 months ago
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Announcer (BBC continuity / credits) / Unknown 0:00
Thank you for downloading More or Less from the BBC. This is the version of the programme first broadcast on BBC Radio 4. Here's Tim Harford.
Tim Harford 0:09
Hello and welcome to More or Less, the programme which boldly goes where no statistics programme has gone before. This week we inspect the claims the UK Treasury and the Scottish Government make about the economics of an independent Scotland, discover that millions of scientific papers might be incorrect and test the veracity of this claim. MUSIC
Ryanair jingle voice / Unknown 0:29
Last year, over 90% of Ryanair flights landed on time... But first, this week's big story.
Tim Harford 0:37
Even Nigel Farage cannot prevent the annual pop-tacular that is... ..the Eurovision Song Contest. This year, high hopes were riding on the UK's Bonnie Tyler... But alas, to no avail. Bonnie came 19th out of 26. The UK hasn't won the contest since 1997, and we haven't really come close for over a decade. Now, many people believe the contest has become an overly political farce since a large number of countries from what was once the Soviet bloc started entering and, rather shockingly, voting for each other.
Short exchange voices (contest lines) / Unknown 1:21
go from Romania to Azerbaijan.
Dan O'Neill 1:26
Will the 12 go to Moldova?
Tim Harford 1:27
They normally do.
Short exchange voices (contest lines) / Unknown 1:29
And finally, our 12 points go to Moldova.
Thomas Herndon 1:33
Yep, there we go.
Tim Harford 1:35
Of course, the UK has over the years tended to vote for Irish songs, while Ireland has over the years tended to vote for the UK, but I'm sure that's a totally different matter. Anyway, we decided it would be interesting to revamp the rules and journey back in time to 1989, before the Berlin Wall fell. Of course, countries from Eastern Europe get to enter a song, otherwise that would be unfair. We're just not going to let them vote.
Eurovision gag voice / Unknown 1:59
Hello, Eurovision. Minsk is calling.
Tim Harford 2:04
Freed from the shackles of the highly politicised newcomers, I can now reveal the results of the 2013 Eurovision Song Contest using only the votes of countries who were competing in 1989. In first place, instead of Denmark, we have... Denmark!
Denmark!
Tim Harford 2:21
Oh, actually, the top ten under either voting system is comprised of the same ten countries, and even the order is largely unchanged.

How would removing former Soviet bloc votes change the 2013 Eurovision results?

Tim Harford 2:29
Norway and the Netherlands do a little better, but that's about it. Azerbaijan is nudged down from second place to third place. It's not exactly Milton's fall of Lucifer. What about Bonnie Tyler's brave effort? It would have risen... Two spots, from 19th place to 17th place. I'm afraid I don't think this wheeze is going to deliver Eurovision glory. I have a better idea. We should let Bonnie try again next year, this time with one of her classic songs, updated for the international world.
Programme website announcement voice / Unknown 2:59
You're listening to More or Less, and our website is bbc.co.uk.
Tim Harford 3:16
This week, both the UK Treasury and the Scottish Government published reports on the economics of Scottish independence. The argument has been full of statistical talking points. For instance, what's the right way to measure how big a bailout Scottish banks might need in the next great financial crisis? Perhaps one for us to talk about later in the series. Just to whet your appetite, one argument has covered the level of Scottish public spending, including a share of British spending such as defence and interest on the UK national debt. Is spending in Scotland high or low relative to spending in the UK? The UK Treasury has pointed out that public spending in Scotland is higher than spending per head in the UK, to the tune of around £1,000 a person, or roughly 10%.
Tim Harford 3:59
In other words, the Scots spend a lot, and can reasonably expect that spending must fall or taxes must rise if the nation becomes independent. But the Scottish Government points out that public spending in Scotland is lower than public spending in the UK as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP. In other words, there'll be less of a need for austerity if Scotland becomes independent. Hmm, who's right? The Scottish Government is certainly presenting the more relevant number. It's GDP, not population, that determines how much money is available for public spending. On the other hand, there's no argument about what the population of Scotland is.

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